Why Obama and Cain are praying for a Palin run
OPINION - Can she win against an incumbent who has substantive work experience and, for all of his perceived shortcomings and missteps, a long record of accomplishments?...
Sarah Palin has made some moves lately that signal she could enter the Republican presidential field. With the recent purchase of a $1.7 million home in Scottsdale, Arizona, a beefing up of her staff and the release of a feature film? about her stint as governor of Alaska — with a debut set for next month in Iowa, of all places — it sounds like Palin might be preparing to take the plunge into 2012 presidential politics.
If this is true, then there are two people who stand to benefit the most from the news — President Barack Obama and Herman Cain.
A recent Gallup poll has an surprisingly strong showing for Cain, the former pizza magnate and Tea Party affiliate who has no experience holding political office. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in the poll with 17 percent, followed by Palin with 15 percent; Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10 percent; Newt Gingrich with 9 percent; Cain with 8 percent; former Wisconsin Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 6 percent, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann with 5 percent, with John Huntsman, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 2 percent apiece. Twenty-two percent remain undecided.
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The survey was the first taken since Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, real estate mogul and reality star Donald Trump, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee announced they would not seek the GOP nomination.
With Sarah Palin in the race and no clear breakaway frontrunner, a candidate such as Cain stands to benefit. First off, he is popular and people like him. And he outperformed his opponents in the recent Republican debate in South Carolina. Plus, there is likely to be a great deal of infighting, cannibalism and reshuffling of the deck during the 2012 primary season.
Republican primary voters are the diehard believers, and far to the right of the general population. This, in a party that has been hijacked by the Tea Party rank-and-file. These folks like their candidates very hard right, extremely conservative and plenty crazy, just like them.
After all, 53 percent of Republican voters polled believe there is no evidence of global warming, a majority doubt the theory of evolution, and over half are birthers who say that President Obama was not born in the U.S. In Mississippi, 46 percent of Republican voters even think that interracial marriage should be outlawed, just to let you know what we’re dealing with here.
All of this means that the GOP — and the primary candidates for the White House in particular — will undergo a conservative ideological purity test. And in the process, those who refuse to toe the line will perish, as the Republicans will destroy their own. Gingrich received a whiff of this new Republican reality when he dared to blast Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wisconsin) plan to cut Medicare as “too big a jump” and “right-wing social engineering.” And while in elections past, GOP candidates veered right to win the primary (as Democratic candidates have moved to the left), only to move back to the political center for the general election, there is no sense that the Tea Party faithful are having any of it this time around. That means there is no room in the party for moderates. The Tea Party group FreedomWorks has as its top priority to derail a Mitt Romney candidacy. The Club for Growth — the influential, fiscally conservative group that believes in the orthodoxy of limited government and lower taxes — has problems with Pawlenty’s record of supporting “things like mandatory vegetable oil in gasoline, cap and trade, and a statewide smoking ban.”
Meanwhile, Huntsman, the former governor of Utah, must explain to Republican primary voters why he served as U.S. ambassador to China under Obama. So, if the primaries don’t eliminate the handful of moderate GOP candidates in the race, the Republican circular firing squad will finish them off. Those presidential hopefuls who remain standing will likely be the standard bearers for the Teabaggers and the birthers, who will split the right wing vote enough to benefit someone such as Tea Party spoiler Herman Cain.
Even if Cain does not emerge as the frontrunner, a strong showing could earn him the VP spot on the ticket — a testament to his appeal among conservatives, and the need for the GOP to present the voters with a black “anti-Obama” solution, an attempt to demonstrate the party is not racist.
As for the president, it is a little more straightforward as to why he and his team would rejoice at the prospect of a Sarah Palin as the Republican nominee. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, and they would have to be extraordinary at that, Obama is all but guaranteed re-election in 2012. And the Obama-Palin debates would make for truly good entertainment. Palin has very high negative ratings, with 59 percent of U.S. adults in a CNN/Opinion Research poll viewing her unfavorably, and 60 percent in a Quinnipiac poll saying they would not never vote for Palin or Trump. Add to that her scant record as governor of a lightly-populated state, a position from which she bailed after a year-and-a-half in order to strike it rich giving speeches.
Moreover, as John McCain’s vice presidential pick in 2008, Palin showed America that she was not vice presidential, and by extension not presidential material. In her TV news interviews she lacked basic knowledge of the issues. Palin demonstrated no intellectual curiosity, and provided little evidence that she reads on a regular basis. These are the basic things you would require from a vice president, along with effective decision making skills and the ability to step in if the president is unable to continue in office. And in an ABC interview, Palin could not even articulate the Bush Doctrine, which then-president Bush, the leader of her party, used to justify going to war with Iraq.
Further, Palin’s liberal use of race baiting during the campaign represented a nadir in electoral politics. She whipped her supporters into a frenzy, characterizing Obama as the “other,” as someone who does not share the values of ordinary Americans, and a radical community organizer who pals around with terrorists.
McCain-Palin supporters came to the campaign rallies with carrying racially offensive anti-Obama posters and Obama monkey dolls. Others called him a terrorist and a traitor, and called for his death. The Secret Service attributed the spike in death threats against then-candidate Obama to the Sarah Palin’s vitriol in the final weeks of the 2008 campaign. Given the paucity of a record on which to run in 2012 — other than her incomplete term and spotty record as the mediocre governor of Alaska — Palin’s conduct during and since the election will become an issue.
Given the nature of Republican Party politics today — where anyone gets a shot, provided they excel at barrel scraping, and embrace a policy platform of extremism and intolerance — Palin could plausibly win the GOP nomination. But can she win against an incumbent who has substantive work experience and, for all of his perceived shortcomings and missteps, a long record of accomplishments? Barack Obama saved the nation from another Great Depression, passed health care reform, and killed Osama bin Laden. Sarah Palin quit her job as governor, gave speeches and starred in a reality show.
If Palin does run for the White House in 2012, one thing is almost certain, regardless of the eventual Republican nominee: Neither Palin nor Cain can beat Obama.
