What to make of the inexorable (and unlikely) rise of Herman Cain?
The question is more pertinent than ever. As the presidential aspirant continues to solidify his standing with Republican voters, virtually every day brings a new poll demonstrating that the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO has genuine momentum on his side. The Hermanator is confounding expectations. In the process, he flusters those who seek to minimize or ridicule the reasons why he clearly resonates with voters.
Perhaps Cain’s biggest claim to political fame is how his gains have come at the expense of two experienced political operators: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Texas’s chief executive Rick Perry. In some regards, it’s almost simplistic — and more than a little unfair — to view Cain’s candidacy through a prism of anti-Romney sentiment. On the other hand, it’s hard to accurately capture Cain’s ascent without explaining why Gov. Romney is seen as such a problematic contender — or comprehend the reasons behind Gov. Perry’s blood-curdling drop in the eyes of voters.
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It was not always thus. Once upon a time, the ‘Anyone But Romney’ mantle helped perch Gov. Perry atop the GOP field. But a combination of missteps conspired to erode his support and raise questions even among conservatives about the governor’s ability to prevail against President Barack Obama in a general election.
Although his standing in the polls don’t currently reflect it, Gov. Perry has several undeniable strengths. He’s a big state governor who’s held office for more than a decade, is perceived as friendly to business and a manifestly prolific fundraiser. Much like Cain, the Texas governor has a folksy persona that can make you either cringe or laugh (often both at the same time. But as a marketing professional might say, Gov. Perry botched his rollout. His initial surge in the polls was a function of how GOP primary voters badly sought an alternative to Gov. Romney, whose impressive resume is often overwhelmed by what many conservatives describe as his unctuousness and lack of principle.
Consequently, Gov. Perry’s tumble is reflective of two major factors: several poorly received debate performances and a plainspoken style that frequently reminds voters of another Texas cowboy they’d just as soon forget. A case in point was Gov. Perry’s blunt criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The governor’s defense of sound monetary policy was not without its merits. But his broadside struck many observers as decidedly un-presidential, and drew heated denunciations from other movement conservatives. Gov. Perry unveiled a new tax proposal this week, only to step on his own message by wading into a needless controversy about the now-discredited story about the president’s birth certificate.
Gov. Romney, on the other hand, has the opposite problem: a carefully cultivated image that constantly draws fire for being insincere. The former management consultant resembles a presidential candidate straight from central casting, which maddens voters who think of him as too slick, overly-patrician and studiously opportunistic. Gov. Romney all but raises political calibration to an art form. This week, his hedge on a controversial Ohio collective bargaining proposal reminded the public exactly why the ‘flip-flop’ label continues to stick. Then there’s the matter of unquenchable subterranean fire that continues to brew over his Massachusetts health care reform.
Although Cain is an experienced businessman, his blessing and curse is that he’s never held public office. While most voters are soured on the idea of professional politicians, many also prefer that candidates for the highest office in the land have some elected experience.
As a result, evidence abounds that Cain has had difficulty making the transition from talk-show host to presidential candidate. His “aw-shucks” mien endears him to primary voters who delight in some of the rhetorical Molotov cocktails he throws. But that hasn’t been sufficient to quell doubts about whether he’s prepared for the klieg-lit stage of a presidential campaign. His foreign policy stumbles remain a very acute liability for the Georgia native; meanwhile, an amateurish stumble on the question of abortion provoked a blitz of criticism from other conservatives.
Arguably his biggest selling point is his unvarnished authenticity that remains untainted by his anti-politico image. Cain also gives heft to what can be, to crib a line from the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement, called the “four percent” — the faceless sliver of black voters who did not support President Obama in 2008. In doing this, Cain elevates his standing with conservative voters, while forcing his liberal critics to descend into self-parody and feats of intellectual contortion as they try to capsize his buoyant campaign.
Some have argued that volatile Republican horse race is indicative of GOP primary indecision and lack of loyalty. By any objective measure, however, it’s quite the opposite. Republicans are casting about for the most electable candidate to prevail against the president next November: even former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is getting a second look.
Often lambasted for dogmatism and inflexibility, Republican voters are in fact demonstrating a remarkable degree of discernment and pragmatism. Cain is the biggest beneficiary of that ethos, and it may yet mold his candidacy into something far greater than the ‘Anyone But Romney’ standard-bearer.
