New Hampshire GOP primary: What to look for in the results
theGRIO REPORT - The results are almost a foregone conclusion in New Hampshire on Tuesday, as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is almost guaranteed to win here. But here are four things to look for in the results.
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire – The results are almost a foregone conclusion in New Hampshire on Tuesday, as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is almost guaranteed to win here. But here are four things to look for in the exit polls and vote totals in the Granite State.
1. Can Mitt win the Tea Party and conservative vote?
In Iowa, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum dominated the votes among “very conservative voters” (Santorum 35 percent, Romney 14 percent) and self-described strong supporters of the tea party (Santorum 30 percent, Romney 14).
Romney will win easily in New Hampshire in part because the state has fewer of these kinds of voters than in Iowa. But it’s still worth looking closely at how Romney performs among more conservative voters. He will have to eat into Santorum’s margin among those voters to win in South Carolina and Florida, the next two major primaries.
This is in some ways the question of the GOP nomination process, whether Romney can get enough of his party’s conservatives to win. In 2008, John McCain struggled in Iowa, but dominated New Hampshire and won enough of the most conservative voters to capture South Carolina and Florida and seal the nomination. Romney could take the same path.
2. Who will finish in second?
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. sounds like a much more confident candidate over the last few days, hammering Romney on the stump and in a recent debate. But if Texas. Rep. Ron Paul finishes in second, ahead of Huntsman, the former ambassador’s campaign will be effectively over. It would be hard for him to emerge as the alternative to Romney if Huntsman finishes in third here despite effectively camping out in the state.
3. How much will Mitt win by?
Romney won Iowa by only eight votes, despite running there in 2008 and 2012. That result suggests he is a weak front-runner.
But a victory in New Hampshire in which he collects a majority of the vote, or wins by more than 20 points, would show strength Romney has not yet demonstrated and give him some real momentum coming into South Carolina.
4. Will Newt and Santorum’s numbers be in the single digits?
Texas Gov. Rick Perry quickly conceded New Hampshire and started campaigning in South Carolina. But Gingrich and Santorum opted to stay here most of the last week.
If they finish far behind Romney, Huntsman and Paul, it will be a sign of weakness. In particular, Santorum may have been better off heading straight to South Carolina, a state full of social conservatives, after his surprising showing in Iowa.
