theGrio

Back to the Top

Main menu

Skip to primary content
Skip to secondary content
  • Home
  • Entertainment
    • Music
    • The Dish
  • Health
    • Ask Dr. Ty
    • Black Men’s Health
    • Black Women and Breast Cancer
    • Back to School Health
  • Living
    • Travel and Leisure
    • Living Forward
    • Books
  • Politics
    • Perry on Politics
  • Sports
  • News
    • Good News
  • Opinion

Red, Black & Blue

Why the health care ruling won’t hurt Obama’s chances in November

by Perry Bacon Jr. | June 26, 2012 at 8:49 AM
Comments
Print
Edward Linsmier/Getty Images

Edward Linsmier/Getty Images

Related Posts

  • Obama signs landmark health reform bill
  • Ted Nugent: 'Obama represents everything bad about humanity'
  • President Obama calls Supreme Court ruling a 'victory'
  • Obama appeals health care setback to high court
  • Obama woos wavering Dems on health vote

Perhaps the most-hyped Supreme Court decision of all-time may have little impact on who wins the presidential race.

Why not? Because health care is not a top-of-mind issue with most voters, particularly the undecided who will decide if Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins the election. Polls consistently show the economy as by far the most important issue to most Americans. In a recent Gallup survey, 68 percent of people cited economic issues as the biggest challenges the country is facing today, while only 6 percent named health care.

Those polls suggest a slim majority of Americans oppose the law, while only about 40 percent back it. But many of these same surveys show Obama ahead, suggesting there are voters who don’t agree with the law but still support the president, and voters who oppose the law but won’t back Romney simply on that basis.

According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, more than 80 percent of Republicans oppose the law, while more than 70 percent of Democrats support it, unsurprising numbers in an increasingly-partisan country. In short, for most people in America, their view on the health care law is determined by which party they belong to.

That Pew survey showed 55 percent of independents opposed the law, while just 36 percent support it, a potential problem for the president. But  Pew survey has showed Obama ahead of Romney by four points in the race.

And the Supreme Court decision ruling is unlikely to shift how Americans view the law or President Obama in a dramatic way. While many Americans don’t know the details of the law, it was extensively covered in 2009 and 2010 by the press, and people have strongly held views on whether they like it or not. The part of the law that is widely expected to be struck down, the individual mandate, is already unpopular with the majority of voters.

Views on the Supreme Court decision are likely to track along partisan lines, with Democrats praising parts of the opinion that support Obama’s views and Republicans extolling the court when it takes on the president.

What will change after Thursday? The decision will shift how the two candidates approach the issue. Obama, who has spent little time on the campaign trail discussing health care, may now press Romney on how and if he will cover Americans who suffer  from chronic illnesses, who may have trouble getting insurance if the mandate is struck down.

Romney, who has long criticized the law, is likely to attack Obama, who was a constitutional law professor, for spending a year pushing a provision the Supreme Court then ruled was unconstitutional.

But like Obama’s decision to embrace gay marriage, which produced little change in the polls, the health care ruling will play less of a role in determining who wins the presidential race than the monthly reports on unemployment.

Follow Perry Bacon Jr. on Twitter at @perrybaconjr

  • Student Milca Calymayor (R), 18-years-old, blocks a a street around the Los Angeles Federal Building during a demonstration by immigrant students for an end to deportations and urge relief by governmental agencies for those in deportation proceedings on June 15, 2012 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
    Next Story:

    Why we need a black-brown political coalition now more than ever

  • Former United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice attends the 21st annual Glamour Women of the Year Awards at Carnegie Hall on November 7, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Coppola/Getty Images)
    Previous Story:

    Condoleezza Rice on VP: ‘There is no way that I will do this’

Filed in: Politics | Related Topics: Barack Obama, Election 2012, Health Care, Health Care Reform, President Obama, Supreme Court
  • Learn about our User Panel

    Read More
  • New Stories on theGrio

    • Obama to Morehouse grads: Set an example Obama to Morehouse grads: Set an example
    • ‘Hero’ cop who sat beside first lady, facing rape charges ‘Hero’ cop who sat beside first lady, facing rape charges
    • WATCH: Kanye West performs on SNL WATCH: Kanye West performs on SNL
    • Full text: President Obama’s Morehouse speech Full text: President Obama’s Morehouse speech
    • Black anti-abortion activists see ‘houses of horror’ everywhere
    • Malcolm X’s triumphs still trump his tragedies
    • Payday loans: a debt trap in disguise
    • Beck’s rant: NAACP, ‘white lynching’
  • What Your Friends Are Reading

  • More from theGrio

More Stories on theGrio

Top News

Politics

  • Non-profit groups often look for tax breaks

    Democratic, liberal groups got IRS scrutiny too

  • No, Obama is not Nixon

  • Eric Holder grilled by House committee

  • Where was the outrage over IRS' NAACP audit?

» Read More in Politics

Business

  • Eve

    A timeless classic: Top career lessons from ‘The Great Gatsby’

  • Boyz II Men appear in new Old Navy commercial

  • An open letter to PepsiCo on the Mountain Dew ad

  • Unemployment falls to 7.5 percent

» Read More in Business

Living

  • Natalie Clarice

    'Find Me My Man' star Natalie Clarice: Her tips for finding love

  • Zoe Saldana goes naked for Allure

  • 'Be My Slave' photo shoot causes controversy

  • Cory Booker raises thousands at UNCF Mayor's Masked Ball

» Read More in Living

Inspiration

  • Identical twins Kirstie and Kristie Bronner (Photo courtesy of Bronner family)

    Twins named Spelman valedictorians

  • DC Central Kitchen helps people struggling to join workforce

  • Man refuses to let disability hamper ability to teach

  • 'Supermom' dedicates her life to foster kids

» Read More in Inspiration

Entertainment

  • Jean-Michel Basquiat's painting titled "Dustheads" sold for $48.8 million at a May 15 auction. (Image courtesy of AP/NBC New York)

    Basquiat painting fetches record $48.8M

  • Bow Wow: MJ swapped my Iverson shoes for Jordans

  • ‘Scandal’ vs. ‘American Idol’: Who will top the ratings?

  • The top 5 rap lyrics of the week

» Read More in Entertainment

News

  • Pastor and former Disney employee Cedric Eugene Cuthbert has been accused of downloading child pornography while working at a Disney resort. (Courtesy WESH)

    Pastor, Disney employee accused of watching child porn at work

  • Charges dropped in teen science experiment

  • Floyd Mayweather Jr. top-earning American athlete in 2013

  • Kindergartner helps save dad’s life by knowing his ABCs

» Read More in News

Main menu

Skip to primary content
Skip to secondary content
  • Politics
  • Living
  • Video
  • Inspire
  • Health
  • Entertainment
  • News
  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Advertise with TheGrio
  • About
©2013 NBCUniversal
Powered by WordPress.com VIP