Anti-incumbent fever has both parties feeling the heat
OPINION - If you are an incumbent, your only chance to be re-elected is to have a solid answer to the question, "What have you done for me lately?"...
It’s no secret that over the course of the past year, the desire for change and an increasing level of activism among American voters has been coupled with a growing anger over a system that seems to be broken. Americans’ fundamental belief in hard work and fairness has become significantly undermined.
In polling and focus groups I’ve been a part of in the past year, one phrase has been repeated over and over. From the Southwest to the Midwest, from the East to the South, African-American, white, Hispanic, male, female, low-income to upper income – almost verbatim people have said: What about us? No one cares about us; they only care about power or making money.
Time and again that message has been reinforced — from politicians whining about the possibility of losing their seat it forced to take a “tough vote”, to the Republican political strategy of obstruction and disrespect, to corporations like Toyota – and now BP — who put their profits ahead of our safety and well being.
WATCH HOWARD DEAN BREAK DOWN THE PRIMARY CONTESTS HERE:
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On Tuesday night, voters have again made it clear — as they did in the 2008 election — that they are taking matters into their own hands, defying the predictions, the pundit-ocracy and the party establishment to hold elected officials accountable.
While Joe Sestak, Rand Paul and the Lincoln/Halter races are the latest examples of this activism, the movement began taking shape in the NY-23 special election where Republican party activists revolted against the party establishment and picked their own candidate, Doug Hoffman, refusing to have the candidacy of Dierdre Scozzafava dictated to them. Recall that at the time, not even a message from the GOP that Scozzafava represented the best chance for Republicans to hold onto the seat resonated with voters. In the end, Democrat Bill Owens won that election as conservatives were divided.
In the Massachusetts Senate race earlier this year, voters again defied “conventional thinking”, which suggested that the seat was safely Democratic. Indeed, Martha Coakley’s campaign seemed to take it for granted that she would of course be elected. She was soundly rejected. Voters instead elected Scott Brown, whose campaign message focused on working hard to earn votes, not assuming they are in the bag.
As Tuesday’s results demonstrated, the anti-incumbency fever is not limited to one political party. The Tea Party movement had an important win on the heels of ousting Bob Bennett in Utah; rebuking Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn and the GOP establishment in selecting Rand Paul as the republican nominee. Paul was not only the Tea Party favorite; he is closely aligned with the far-right faction of the party led by Jim DeMint which is locked in an unfolding civil war inside the GOP. As conservative leaders like Richard Vigurie call for McConnell to step down, the question is whether or not the right-wing will completely take over the GOP.
Tuesday night was also an important win for the progressive movement, which strongly supported Joe Sestak’s and worked hard in support of Bill Halter, who has forced incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln into a run-off. On both ends of the political spectrum arguments about which candidate represented the party’s best hope to hold on to the again Senate seat fell on deaf ears. Look for both movements to use the momentum coming out of Tuesday in support of candidates in the fall.
Perhaps the most significant outcome was the election of Mark Critz in Pennsylvania’s 12th district in the seat formerly held by Jack Murtha. The fact that Critz was a former staffer for the very popular Murtha may have played a role in his success. But the win denied the GOP the narrative they were most hoping for – momentum to win back traditionally held Democratic seats in 2010 as part of a plan to take back control of the House.
Again the “conventional wisdom” that says the party in power suffers significant losses in a midterm election is being challenged as Democrats were again victorious in a special election, making the congressional math tougher for Republicans.
As Tuesday night demonstrated, Americans are united in their anti-incumbency, anti-establishment fervor. Which means if you are an incumbent, your only chance to be re-elected is to have a solid answer to the question best summed up by Janet Jackson, “What have you done for me lately?”
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