Can Rick Santorum win the GOP nomination?
Since winning three contests last week, a series of polls have showed the former Pennsylvania senator surging, both nationally and in Michigan, which holds the next major GOP primary on Feb. 28. In a Pew Research Center survey, Santorum dominated Republican front-runner Mitt Romney among evangelical Christians, Tea Party Republicans and self-described moderates, the groups that have been resistant to the ex-Massachusetts governor throughout the year.
National Review, the influential conservative magazine, has called on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to “endorse Santorum and exit,” setting up effectively at two-man contest for the nomination. Some polling has shown Santorum ahead in Michigan, where Romney’s father was governor and he is a heavy favorite.
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Santorum’s rise is the latest iteration of the story that has defined the Republican primary: Romney has been unable to consolidate the backing of conservatives, leaving an opening for another challenger. Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Gingrich have all been close to Romney in polls, only to fall backwards when the media and Romney starts to scrutinize them more closely.
Santorum is emphasizing his conservative positions on issues like gay marriage and abortion, but also casting himself as a working class champion who understands the concerns of middle-class Americans better than former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
And he is an aggressively attacker of President Obama. While he has avoided his controversial remark last year that he couldn’t understand how the president backs abortions rights as “a black man,” Santorum continues to cast the president as “trying to divide this country more than any president in the history of the country.”
The ex-senator now faces two major challenges. Santorum has struggled to raise money throughout his candidacy, and while some rich donors are now funding a Super PAC to help him, it’s unclear he could keep up if Romney started hammering him with commercials as he did Gingrich.
His organization in many states pales in comparison to Romney and Ron Paul, a major challenge as the Republican race turns into a national election on March 6, with primaries around the country.
And with Republicans very focused on defeating President Obama, Santorum must shore about concerns about his electability. In most head-to-head polls, Santorum is further behind the president than Romney is, which could worry some conservatives whose biggest priority is defeating Obama.
But the shifting ground of this campaign could aid Santorum. Romney designed his entire race around attacking President Obama on the economy.
That strategy now looks more problematic, as job growth is surging and the unemployment rate is dipping. The former Massachusetts governor now finds himself giving speeches and interviews defending his conservatism after running for the GOP nomination for most of the last five years.
“I want people to remember that I was on the front lines on conservative social issues, on conservative fiscal issues, and standing up for conservative foreign-policy values,” Romney said in an interview with National Review this week.
A series of cultural issues is also drawing the attention of conservatives, from contraception to gay marriage. And on those matters, Santorum is likely to benefit from his long record of social conservatism.
But the main dynamic is simply the persistent resistance to embracing Romney among Republicans. Whenever it seems he will effectively clinch the nomination, conservative activists start falling in love with another hopeful.
Romney’s overwhelming organizational and financial advantage is likely to eventually allow him to win this primary. But his inability to excite voters could be a problem if he faces President Obama, who will likely be able to match Romney in money and organization.
Follow Perry Bacon Jr. on Twitter at @perrybaconjr