Why Obama's coalition is being ignored on gun control
theGRIO REPORT - Despite very strong support from Democratic voters, bans on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines aren't even included in the main gun control bill the Democratically-controlled Senate is considering..
A coalition of urbanites, white liberals, blacks, Hispanics and others helped President Obama win by a landslide on Election Day in November. And since then, their preferences have shaped policy on a number of issues: Nearly every Democrat in the Senate and even some Republicans now back gay marriage, leading GOP officials are eager to embrace immigration reform, a tax hike on the wealthy was finally approved earlier this year.
But on guns, the voices of the Obama coalition may be ignored. Despite very strong support from Democratic voters, bans on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines aren’t even included in the main gun control bill the Democratically-controlled Senate is considering. The background check part of the bill, the strongest gun control provision with even a possibility of passing, is hardly a liberal dream: It exempts a number of gun sales from the checks and bars states from enforcing their gun laws against owners who are transporting their firearms across state lines.
And even background checks, supported by nearly 90 percent of Americans overall (so likely nearly all Democrats), are likely to be rejected by the Senate.
Why gun control has been an uphill battle
Part of the challenge of passing a gun control bill is simply that while a majority of people in 2012 voted for Democrats to run the House, Senate and the presidency, that reality is not reflected in Washington.
The Senate has decided 60 votes are needed to pass most legislation, meaning for a bill to pass, nearly all of the 55 Democrats, including the ones from red states, and at least five Republicans must agree to it. Because of the way House districts are drawn, Republicans hold a 232-201 advantage in seats there, even though about 1.4 million more Americans voted for House Democratic candidates than Republicans in 2012, according to data from the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman.
So in truth, much of the Obama’s agenda is being enacted, but not because it has strong support in Congress. Gay marriage is being advanced in states and courthouses, not Washington, and Obama was able to get through a tax increase in part because an even larger one was scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2013 if Congress did not act. Republicans are conceding immigration for their political survival in 2016 with Latino voters.
And on gun control, the red state versus blue state divide is particularly strong. In states like Illinois and Pennsylvania, where there are large cities that have been severely affected by gun violence, Republican members of Congress are feeling pressure to allow some kind of gun control bill to pass. But in Arkansas, North Dakota and other more rural states where the “Obama coalition” is smaller, even Democratic senators worry gun rights groups will be more active on Election Day in 2014 than gun control advocates. In these states, the president lost by huge margins, and the Democrats usually win by distancing themselves from the national party.
Little sway with conservatives
The most prominent voices on the gun control side, particularly New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, are distinctly blue-state figures who have little sway with conservative voters.
The strongest minority voices for gun control are blacks, not Latinos, who Republicans are much more focused on courting. The Obama coalition, large in states like Virginia and North Carolina, has many fewer white voters in the Deep South.
What this means is that the two Americas reflected on Election Day may soon live under two different regimes of gun laws. A number of blue states have already passed stronger background checks and magazine limits in the wake of the Newtown shooting, while conservative states will keep existing laws or even add more provisions to make it easier for gun owners and purchasers.
Follow Perry Bacon Jr. on Twitter at @perrybaconjr
