Why the White House is still talking about gun control
theGRIO REPORT - President Obama is unlikely to sign a major gun control bill during his presidency, as Republicans control enough seats to block expanded background checks or other legislation backed by gun control advocates in the near future...
President Obama is unlikely to sign a major gun control bill during his presidency, as Republicans control enough seats to block expanded background checks or other legislation backed by gun control advocates in the near future.
So why is the White House still talking about the issue, including Vice-President Biden giving a speech on the issue on Tuesday?
One reason is that the administration promised gun control supporters, such as the families of the victims of the Newtown shooting, that it would persist on the issue.
But another important reason is that gun control may be an issue like health care reform legislation, where the Democrats will need several election cycles to build a coalition to eventually pass a bill, and they are building that momentum now. Democrats called for universal health care for decades, but they only elected enough members of the House, Senate and a president who were committed to passing a bill in 2008.
Gun control may have similar dynamics. White House officials said there are already signs that the politics of around gun issues, long dominated by conservatives, are moving left. In the past, even as a majority of Americans have long favored stricter gun laws, the intensity was all on one side: politicians who voted for gun control measures faced sharp criticism from the NRA and pro-gun advocates, while there was little benefit to voting for gun control, or cost for opposing it.
Now, some Republicans, particularly those in blue states like New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, have faced strong criticism for opposing the background check provision. New York mayor Michael Bloomberg is running ads attacking the four Senate Democrats who opposed the gun control legislation.
And there is little sign that Democrats like North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan, who represents a red state, are facing any significant backlash for supporting the gun control legislation.
These dynamics suggest that while Obama is unlikely to able to sign a major gun control provision into law, he could be laying the groundwork for a President Biden or Hillary Clinton to do so. Democrats are unlikely to win control of the House in 2014, as young and minority voters tend not to turn out in midterm elections.
But if 2016 is a strong year for Democrats, they would win the White House and the House and keep control the Senate. And it’s likely that whatever candidate wins the Democratic presidential primary will be committed to adopting gun control legislation, as Obama has helped reshape the politics around the issue by coalescing Democrats around background checks and making the case that it is no longer political suicide for the party to call for greater gun control.
A majority backing gun control in the House and Senate by 2016, with a president who would sign a bill, now seems possible.
