Why today's elections in Virginia and New Jersey matter

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1. Can “Obamacare” succeed at the ballot box?

As a health care policy, the Affordable Care Act’s fate won’t be determined for months, if not years.  But Tuesday’s election results will shape the discussion of the law’s effects on national politics. In Virginia, Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli has seized on the flawout rollout of HealthCare.gov, linked the struggles of Obamacare to Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe and declared the race a “referendum on Obamacare.” If elected, Cuccinelli has pledged to stop any effort to expand the state’s Medicaid program through funds in the health care law.

But McAuliffe, who has said he will expand Medicaid, is the favorite to win. If he does, it will provide at least one rebuttal to the argument by Republicans and even some Democrats that the flawed health care rollout imperils the Democrats’ stances in the 2014 elections. The Democrats will have won the first race in the country so far in which the implementation of the health care law has been a major issue.

In fact, Obamacare may get two political victories on Tuesday. Chris Christie, who will almost certainly win re-election as governor in New Jersey, is one of the few Republicans who have not completely opposed Obamacare at every turn. He, unlike all but a handful of GOP governors, has accepted the Medicaid funds. His victory could push other Republican governors in more liberal-leaning states to do the same ahead of their 2014 reelection races.

2. Is Chris Christie a different kind of Republican?

Polls show Chris Christie could win up to 30 percent of the black vote , half the Hispanic vote and the majority of women  in his reelection race against State Sen. Barbara Buono. If Christie is able to assemble such as diverse coalition in New Jersey, a traditionally Democratic state, national Republican Party leaders are almost certain to start touting him as one of the party’s best hopefuls for 2016. (You read here why it will be much, much harder for Christie to win minority voters in a presidential election.)

3. Is the era of the inflammatory black Republican nearing its end?

Herman Cain’s presidential candidacy ended without him ever coming close to winning a primary. Florida voters ousted Allen West last fall. The buzz around pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson running for the Republican presidential nomination died quickly, although he was able to secure a Fox News gig, which may have been his goal when he  making a series of controversial remarks about politics and President Obama earlier this year.

E.W. Jackson, the African-American man who Virginia Republicans tapped as their candidate for lieutenant governor despite his long record of odd comments, such as comparing Planned Parenthood to the Ku Klux Klan, is likely to lose Tuesday as well.

If Jackson loses, the leading black political figure in the Republican Party will be U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. Perhaps not coincidentally, Scott has avoided the bomb-throwing style of West, Carson and Jackson, opting to be a quiet figure in the Senate. He votes against nearly every Obama administration initiative, but without much bombast. He’s a heavy favorite to win a full-six year term to the Senate next year.