New poll shows Stacey Abrams in tight race for Georgia governor

Oct 2, 2018

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With nearly a month until Election Day, a new poll in Georgia shows Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp in a neck-and-neck race for Governor.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the poll, conducted by Landmark Communications, showed Kemp leading Abrams 48-46 among likely Georgia voters, which falls within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error. Libertarian Ted Metz had about 2 percent of support while only 3 percent of voters were undecided.

The poll was of 964 likely voters and is the first public poll to be released in the gubernatorial race since a September poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed the candidates in a 45-45 tie.

The poll also noted a distinct gender gap with Abrams leading Kemp 51-42 among women while the Kemp had a 55-41 advantage among men. Abrams also has a 58-25 lead among independents who traditionally make up the state’s largest contingent.

Kemp, however, holds a huge lead with voters 65-and-older by a 56-38 margin.

The Trump Factor

The close nature of the race could be an indicator of the enthusiasm mounting behind Democrats trying to flip the state’s top office for the first time since 2002, propelled by Abrams’ embrace of progressive issues in her bid to become the nation’s first Black woman elected governor.

While the poll is encouraging for Abrams’ supporters, in 2014, Democrat Jason Carter was also tied with Republican Nathan Deal only to fall behind and eventually lose as GOP candidates took over in the election’s final stretch.

The September poll also suggested that Donald Trump’s popularity in the state is not as strong as one would assume. Trump, who won Georgia by 5 percentage points in 2016 and endorsed Kemp, is looking at low approval numbers in the Peach State.

In September, Trump’s approval rating in Georgia was about 42 percent, compared with 51 percent who disapprove. About 7 percent either didn’t know or refused to answer the poll, which was the second poll this year to show Trump’s approval ratings below 50 percent in Georgia.