GOP eyes Latinos in South Texas in effort to regain Congress
âHistorically, itâs been Hispanic people are very conservative, but they vote traditionally Democrat," said McAllen Texas Gov. Javier Villalobos
In Republicansâ bid to retake control of Congress, this traditionally Democratic stretch of South Texas has quietly become a top battleground.
After making unexpected gains last November, the GOP is zeroing in on a trio of House seats in the region as key targets heading into next yearâs midterm elections. They include the 15th Congressional District, which hasnât sent a Republican to Washington since its creation in 1903, but where a GOP newcomer came within three points of winning in 2020.
Republican leaders believe the party is on the precipice of a political realignment among Hispanic voters in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border like McAllen. Inroads among Latinos could potentially offset the partyâs growing vulnerabilities among voters, particularly in the suburbs. The elections next year will determine whether these shifts are enduring or a more limited response to the turbulent politics of the Trump era, as Democrats hope.
But with Congress having just a six-seat majority in the House, Democrats in Texas say the party has to take the threat seriously.
âI donât think thereâs any question that we need to be concerned about it and we need to put more resources into it,â said Gilberto Hinojosa, the chair of the Texas Democratic Party.Â
Republicansâ top target in the area is the 15th District. It currently stretches from the borderâs Hidalgo County, which is more than 90% Hispanic, to the eastern suburbs of San Antonio. Voters here have never sent a Republican to Washington, which is why national party leaders were so stunned when Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez, a small business owner, came within 10,000 votes of beating Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a two-term Democrat.
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Sitting behind her office desk in Alamo earlier this month wearing cowboy boots and a campaign T-shirt, De La Cruz-Hernandez, who is running again, credited her performance to former President Donald Trump. She said his âcolorful personalityâ had sparked new interest in national politics that changed many Texansâ minds about politics.
âWhen they paid attention to what was happening on the national stage, I think that the lights started to turn on for people where they saw, you know what? My conservative values no longer align with the Democrat Party,â she said. âThe bottom line is that the Hispanic values are pro-God, pro-life and pro-country. And we are conservatives down here.â
Border security, she said, is ânumber one issue from the north side of the district to the south side of the district,â as border crossings have soared. And Republicans in the state have been laser-focused on the issue, with Trump staging a post-presidential visit to the border last month that drew hundreds of supporters.
Democratic state lawmakers have been focused on blocking a sweeping election overhaul bill and have been camped out in Washington â though some Democrats representing the Rio Grande Valley did not join them.
Nationally, the Pew Research Center estimates that about 38% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020, compared with 28% in 2016. While Trump lost Hidalgo Country by 17 percentage points in 2020, he more than doubled his support from 2016, when he lost by a whopping 40 points, earning just 28% of the vote. And he flipped a handful of other nearby districts, including Zapata County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton had won 66%-33%, and Kenedy, which Clinton carried 53%-45%
Beyond those gains, Republicans point to other data points to support their optimism. Javier Villalobos in June was elected mayor of McAllen, becoming the first Republican to hold the post in decades. Texasâ redistricting process, which is controlled by state Republicans, could produce districts that are even more favorable to GOP candidates as the lines are redrawn to reflect the stateâs gain of two congressional seats.
Villalobos, who joined Trump at his border briefing and was hailed as a âsuperstarâ by other officials at the event, said he saw his election as part of a trend driven both by Trump as well as economic changes as more Hispanics have entered the middle class.
âHistorically, itâs been Hispanic people are very conservative, but they vote traditionally Democrat. And little by little, even the older people are changing,â he said. âAnd thatâs a beautiful thing. Competition is good.â
Itâs unclear whether the gains Republicans made in 2020 will carry over when Trump isnât on the ballot in 2022. Democrats insist their poor performance last year was a one-off and point to unique circumstances, including the partyâs decision to largely forgo in-person campaigning during the pandemic. The McAllen mayorâs race, they also note, was nonpartisan, and turnout was less than 10,000 votes.
Gonzalez, the Democratic incumbent in the 15th District, insists heâs unfazed by the strong showing of De La Cruz-Hernandez. He described last yearâs results as âan anomalyâ driven by a pandemic that devastated the district, killing thousands of residents, including some of his personal friends, and dissuaded many elderly voters from casting their ballots.
He pointed to concrete gains made under the Biden administration that he will campaign on, including an economic recovery, mass vaccinations and relief dollars that helped keep small businesses open.
âEveryone at the end of the day is running on results and the work that weâve done and we will be running on what weâve done for the people,â he said.
But Hinojosa, the Texas Democratic chair, was more cautious. He acknowledged the party was caught off guard by a surge in first-time voters who cast ballots for Trump. Because no one thought the races would be competitive, little money and effort were spent on the contests, with no canvassing, phone banking or get-out-the-vote drives.
Trumpâs message, he said, also resonated with voters, especially in the Rio Grande Valley, where poverty rates are high and the economy remains hobbled by a shuttered southern border. He cited concerns about the future of the oil and gas industry, the border, and calls from some Democrats to âdefund the police,â which âfreaked outâ many voters who have ties to law enforcement.
âIt was just almost a perfect storm for the Republicans down here,â he said, noting the party lacked the âresources that were needed to shore up support down hereâ because the raceâs werenât considered competitive.
In preparation for next yearâs election, he said he has already held meetings across South Texas with local leaders, forming coalitions along the border, as well as hiring a full-time organizer.
âWeâre going to spend a heck of a lot more money and lot more time than we ever have before just to make sure that what Republicans say is going to happen wonât happen,â he said. âWeâre not going to take any chances.â
But interviews with voters suggest there is work to be done.
Eryc Palomares, 42, who lives in McAllen and works in a medical laboratory, said he was thrilled to see others like him who had broken their allegiance to the Democratic Party âbecause thatâs all weâve seen, thatâs all weâve known here.â
Itâs âas if they have you already brainwashed: Go vote Democrat. Thatâs all it was here,â said Palomares, who now tends to vote Republican.
âPeople are waking up,â said Manuel Pescador Jr., 54, an occupational safety consultant and local activist who lives in McAllen.
Pescador Jr. said he switched parties seven years ago, rejecting what he saw as a culture of âhandouts and false promises,â and now rails against immigrants who enter the U.S. illegally.
âThey come here, they refuse to assimilate and theyâre here to use everything they can, in any way they can. And so thatâs why I call them âdepleters,ââ he said. âThatâs why that Hispanics that can vote, vote Republican, because we know whoâs coming in.â
Joe Guerra, an independent who lives in McAllen, didnât vote in last yearâs presidential election, but said he wasnât at all surprised by the GOPâs gains.
âThe Republican Party was, for years, just a token presence here. But the conservative spirit has always been here,â he said. âThey were always there and (Trump) just had the ability to bring them out. Thatâs who theyâve always been.â
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