Can Condoleezza Rice be the Republicans' 'Great Black Hope'?
OPINION - While Rice’s life story makes her a very compelling 'Great Black Hope' for the Republican Party, ideological realities within the GOP dictate that she will not be in a position to significantly help...
Rice’s pro-choice stance on abortion, support for gay civil unions, and relative tolerance for illegal immigration could benefit the GOP with independent female voters in a general election. However, her positions put her at odds with the party’s socially conservative base. Some 71 percent of Republican voters self-identify as “conservative” or “very conservative”. Due to her socially moderate views, social conservatives have long had an uneasy relationship with Rice.
There’s also the issue of Rice’s coyness regarding whether or not she voted for President Obama in 2008. Thus there was a swift conservative outcry when her name was trial ballooned as a potential vice presidential candidate. As long as social conservatives constitute almost three-quarters of the GOP electorate, it will be quite difficult for Rice to unify the party’s center-right triumvirate on fiscal, social, and foreign policy issues.
Rice is also not the ideal 2016 presidential or vice president candidate. She has never held elected office, and American voters prefer governors and U.S. Senators for president. Rice herself has repeatedly stated that her personality is better suited for policy work than elected office.
More importantly, Dr. Rice would bring few black votes to the Republican side as a presidential or vice presidential candidate. While studies show that 21 percent of black Americans support a smaller government providing fewer services, 69 percent favor a larger government. Thus the black majority view and the Republican Party platform regarding the proper role of government are fundamentally at odds.
Only 4 percent of black voters voted for the Republican Senator John McCain in the 2008 presidential campaign, compared with 31 percent of Hispanic voters. With Hispanic voters almost eight times likelier to swing their votes than black voters and the fact that Hispanic political clout will further increase over election cycles, political trends lie outside Black America for the 2016 presidential race. Thus, up-and-coming Hispanic Republican politicians – such as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez – are better positioned to actually deliver votes for the GOP.
Condoleezza Rice’s most useful next steps for her party are in swing states, where a small but significant swing in the black vote could tip things in Mitt Romney’s favor. This is a similar strategy to what George W. Bush successfully deployed in winning Ohio (and thus re-election) in 2004. As BlackElectorate.com publisher Cedric Muhammad points out, a Republican presidential candidate typically gets elected if he wins 10 percent (or more) of the overall black vote.
Rice could galvanize the 21 percent of pro-smaller-government black voters by challenging the Democratic Party to show why it hasn’t organically developed Black America despite having monopoly political power within black communities for almost five decades. She could highlight black concerns that Obama has consistently overlooked, even while he is amenable to other groups’ agenda items: high black unemployment, the negative impact of the War on Drugs in black communities, and a coherent policy on Africa.
Rice could zero in on the crime-based “War On Women” going on within our own communities (unfortunately, overwhelmingly by our own) – which liberals conveniently ignore while zeroing in on Rep. Todd Akin’s (R-Mo.) idiotic “legitimate rape” comment. Another area where Rice can shine brightly is her school-choice activities, highlighting the need for poor black students to be able to use school vouchers in order to escape failing schools. By embracing these issues, Rice can solidify her increasing image as a Renaissance Woman.
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