As President Obama prepares to give his State of the Union address, he is riding a wave of approval that many would have thought impossible just two months ago. The White House is looking to utilize his speech tonight before a nation struggling to find work to further advance his approval rating and set the tone for the 2012 presidential election with a “Win the Future” battle cry.
While the details of the president’s remarks lay under a cloak of secrecy until he actually takes the podium, it is clear that the economy will dominate his address. But, there are some topics that the president will likely address superficially, or stay away from all together in order to score a State Of The Union win.
Social Security is the most nuanced of the third rail issues that may be left untouched by the president’s remarks. How Obama navigates Social Security will weigh heavily in how he scores with the left. And with the GOP carrying the responsibility of drastic budget cuts, a wave to Social Security in his remarks may be all that is necessary to challenge his Congressional adversaries to look to other areas like defense as targets for substantial reduction.
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The gun control debate is front and center in response to the assassination attempt against Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, AZ. And while the family of slain 9-year-old Christina Taylor Green and Daniel Hernandez, the aide to Giffords who rushed to help her at the shooting, will be sitting with the first lady, the president will likely leave rhetoric related to gun control policy holstered. It is reasonable to believe that he will remain consistent, employing the appalling event to bring people together and using Giffords’ recovery as a symbol of what the country can do.
As the president lays out the various areas his administration will look to create jobs, he will mention corporate environmental responsibility and the economic potential of green sector jobs. However, climate change language will remain off the table. Obama will speak to the left by honoring past clean energy promises and acknowledging a green economic possibility that is yet to be realized in many parts of the country, but will steer clear of Gore-like rhetoric that will alienate him from many moderates.
As he stated in a preview of his address during a weekend video message, the United States is going to have to “out-innovate,” “out-compete” and “out-educate” other nations. And this is exactly what is strategy will be this evening. And this strategy is timely, as the American people will also not hear a unified GOP. The joint Republican response coming from both Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Tea Party Patriot and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann ensures a partial win for the president. The predicted mixed message will give the White House room to define the real message going into this crucial legislative session and looming 2012 elections.