Just four short years after John McCain’s politically-motivated selection of Sarah Palin, the Republican Party once again is signaling its lack of enthusiasm for its most logical candidates for vice-president. The potential of Condoleezza Rice has excited some in the party, eager for an unconventional choice even though the former secretary of state supports abortion rights. Others are pushing Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, despite his serving fewer than two years in the Senate.
In fact, if Romney were to pick Rice, Rubio or any of the other non-traditional candidates being considered, it would be the latest signal of the increased importance of diversity in national campaigns and the impending death of a long-time political tradition – the all-white male presidential ticket. A number of irreversible factors are converging in our nation’s politics and forcing us to redefine what it means for either major party to have a “balanced” presidential ballot. Even if Romney opts for a more traditional candidate, as expected, 2012 may be the last time we see the familiar image of two white men on the ticket of either major party.
Related: Does Romney need to bring diversity in his running mate choice?
For most of recent history, a strong presidential ticket was based primarily on ideological positioning and regional identification. John F. Kennedy picked Texas’ Lyndon Johnson so he could have a southerner on the ticket in 1960. Ronald Reagan, a conservative hero, tapped the more moderate George H. W. Bush twenty years later.
In recent presidential cycles, the significance of geography has diminished, but candidates have looked for a running mate who balanced the ticket with experience (Dick Cheney in 2000) or youth (Dan Quayle in 1988). Except for Walter Mondale’s selection of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, every person on the ticket before 2008 had been a white male.
But now, racial and ethnic minorities and women have become an increasingly important part of the electoral landscape. They comprise a growing part of the electorate, as well as many of the media pundits and advisers who shape the political environment.
Obama’s coalition of African-Americans, Hispanics, youth and women, and the historic over-representation of these groups among the electorate, were two of the biggest factors in the president’s electoral success in 2008. A Pew Research study declared the 2008 electorate the most diverse in history.
African-American women voted in a higher percentage than any other group for the first time, and Hispanics saw an uptick in their voter participation of more than 2 percent.
To appeal to this new electorate, a diverse ticket is not about symbolism, but winning. We are all aware of the projections for a majority minority population beginning in 2025. Add to this the continued dominance of swing states such as Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania – all of which have high minority and urban populations – and one has to assume that the trend of minority representation on the national ticket could be here to stay for both political parties.
Romney has among his choices for vice-president an Indian-American governor who leads a southern state (Bobby Jindal of Louisiana), a Cuban-American senator from a battleground state Florida (Rubio), and a white female senator from New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte), as well as Rice, even as she has declared herself uninterested in the job. Theoretically, these candidates all have the potential to help Romney increase his support among their respective communities – Indian Americans (or maybe Southerners more directly), Hispanics, women and even blacks.
While these groups have traditionally voted for Democrats, Romney and the GOP believe they may have a shot at cracking the code this year due to the hangover from a slow economic recovery. And it is easier for Romney to appeal to Hispanics by tapping Rubio than trying to reverse the former governor’s hard-line stances on immigration.
The challenge for Romney is that the selection of the first two non-traditional VP candidates (Ferraro and Palin) were historically regarded as stunts by desperate presidential candidates who didn’t see any other route to victory. This actually puts Romney in a tight spot. The “diverse” crop of candidates who could be tapped by Romney in 2012 are short on either time in national office (Ayotte, Rubio), political experience (Rice, who has never run for office) or charisma (Jindal).
Should Romney pick anyone other than a white male, the move may be seen by many as an act of desperation, just as it was in the past. Considering this, and the vast policy differences with minority communities on important issues, my sense is he follows the first commandment of vice-presidential picks, “do no harm,” and goes with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman or former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.
But the non-white male Republicans will be more prepared in 2016. By then, if Romney does not win, Rubio, Ayotte, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez and other diverse GOP candidates will have sufficient experience for a national campaign. On the Democratic side, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and other women and minorities could seek one of the top two slots.
And that future raises an intriguing prospect: the 2012 GOP ticket as the last-ever all-white-guy combo.
Corey Ealons is a former communications adviser at the White House who now serves as a senior vice-president at VOX Global.