A judge in Pennsylvania upheld a new voter ID law in the state on Wednesday, dealing a blow to liberal groups and Democrats who had argued it imposes an unfair burden on many potential voters.
But the provision in Pennsylvania and others around the country, which Attorney General Eric Holder has likened to poll taxes, may not actually be a huge threat to Obama’s chances of winning reelection, despite Democratic concerns that minorities disproportionately don’t have photo ID’s.
Why not? First of all, most of the nine states with the strictest voting provisions, those that do not allow a person’s vote to be counted unless he or she has a valid picture ID, are unlikely to be heavily contested this November. (Here’s the list, from the National Conference of State Legislatures)
Mitt Romney is almost certain to win Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, and Tennessee, states where these laws are in effect. (In fact, despite one of these laws, Obama was the first Democrat in a generation to win in Indiana, suggesting strong Democratic enthusiasm can overcome them. His poll numbers have declined so much in Hoosier State that Obama’s campaign has largely written off the state.)
South Carolina, Mississippi, and Texas have all approved these provisions, but under the Civil Right Act, the Department of Justice must certify their laws won’t disproportionately affect minority voters. DOJ has rejected the laws in Texas and South Carolina and not yet given clearance in Mississippi.
In Wisconsin, a judge in March struck down a voter provision under state law, meaning it is not in effect either.
Currently, the only swing state where a mandatory photo ID law is in place is Pennsylvania. And the Keystone State, while a battleground, is a place Obama won by 10 points in 2008 and last backed a Republican for president in 1988.
Secondly, even if the Pennsylvania law stays in place, Obama campaign officials already are trying to combating its effects. The campaign has for months been training volunteers and staffers to educate voters on how to comply with the law and make sure they have the right documents to vote. While there is no doubt some people will arrive at the polls in November without an ID, that number may be so small as to have little impact on the results because of the diligence of the Obama campaign on this front.( In fact, many of the people in Pennsylvania without a driver’s license are likely to be elderly voters, a group that is not Democratic-leaning)
“Since the passage of the law our campaign has included information on the new provisions in volunteer trainings, information resources, online, and in voter registration and education activities, and we will continue to do so,” said Jennifer Austin, the campaign’s Pennsylvania spokeswoman. “Now more than ever it is important that the Commonwealth follow through on its plan to make available free IDs to any voter who may need them. Regardless of party affiliation, we support ensuring any voter eligible to cast a ballot has the right to do so.”
Democrats are fighting other kinds of voting laws as well. In Ohio, the Obama campaign is suing to fight a decision by the secretary of state there to end early voting the Friday before Election Day for most voters, but still allow it for members of the military. In 2008, about 93,000 people, many of them Democrats, cast ballots early, while military voters are assumed to be more conservative.
Democrats in the state are also contesting the secretary of state’s decisions in two largely-Democratic counties not to extend hours for early voting into the evening and on Saturday.
In Florida and Virginia, early voting days have also been cut, including the Sunday before Election Day that many black churches had used to get people to vote immediately after services.
But most of these changes have been known about for more than a year, and both campaigns are likely prepared for them and how to make sure their core supporters turn out.
Follow Perry Bacon Jr. on Twitter at @perrybaconjr