Allen West for Florida governor? Stranger things have happened

This post has been updated.

When Allen West lost his congressional seat to a 29-year-old newcomer, many Florida watchers wrote his political obituary.

The Tea Party favorite, who developed a reputation for outrageous comments and far-right politics, was, at one point, one of just two black Republican members of Congress (the other, Tim Scott of South Carolina, has since been promoted to United States senator, thanks to the retirement of Jim DeMint and a tap from that state’s governor, Nikki Haley.) He ran for office in 2010 after a failed attempt to unseat the Democrat in the 22nd district, but succeeded his second time around thanks to a national Republican wave fueled by opposition to President Barack Obama’s push for universal health care.

“Obamacare,” as the Affordable Care Act was called by Republican opponents, has since become the law of the land, cemented by a Supreme Court decision, and growing in popularity, such that the term is now coined by Democrats as well. Some of its staunchest opponents, like Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who made a name for himself by creating a PAC to specifically oppose health care reform, have relented. Scott recently announced that he would accept the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid in Florida, something the Supreme Court ruled was optional for states.

Scott’s reasoning, like that of other swing state governors, was that the 100 percent federal reimbursement for adding people earning up to 135 percent of the poverty rate for the first five years was worth it, especially for states like Florida, that have large uninsured and elderly populations. Scott’s decision infuriated Tea Partiers in the state, who had backed him in 2010. He has since been rebuffed by the state’s Republican-dominated legislature, which has signaled they won’t go along with Scott’s decision to accept Obamacare money for Medicaid expansion.

And now, West has weighed in, telling the Tampa Bay Times‘ senior political reporter Adam Smith that Scott’s reversal has made him “vulnerable,” as he faces re-election in 2014.

“I think when you say you’re gong to stand up to something then you kind of back off … but there are other Republican governors who did the same thing. It’s kind of making people question, ‘Really, where is your backbone?'” West told Smith last Friday. “Me, I would not have gone for that Medicaid expansion. And according to the Supreme Court decision, it was not something you were mandated to do.”

Smith was inquiring about West’s potential political plans, and whether they might include mounting a primary challenge to Scott, whose approval ratings have been mired in the 30s almost since the start of his term as governor. Now, having riled his based with his about-face on Medicaid expansion under Obamacare, some political watchers in Florida are wondering whether Scott has invited a challenge from the right. And West has made a push for continued relevancy by forming his own organization designed “to help

“It does make him vulnerable, I’m being honest with you.” West told Smith, regarding Scott’s change of heart on Medicaid expansion. “Because it’s a fiscal conservative issue. Will the governor be able to go out and defend it once he hits the campaign trail? We’ll have to see.”

But will West be that challenger? Smith said it depends on a very important number.

“The magic number is $100 million, which is what Rick Scott’s people say he expects to spend on his reelection,” Smith told theGrio by email. “That seems to be scaring away credible Republican challengers to Scott and Democrats as well.”

As for the former congressman and current host of an Internet show, who has been the subject of West for Governor and even West for President grassroots efforts by tea party supporters before, Smith believes he may be more interested in the attention than the job of governor.

“West seems much more interested in building his profile as a tea party warrior than actually running for office,” Smith said. “He probably could give Scott a real fight for the GOP nomination, but unless there’s another huge republican wave in 2014 it’s very hard to see a divisive arch conservative winning a general election in a purple state like Florida.”

Whatever his plans, West remains an object of fascination for some on the right. He was a big hit at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference, and his opinion has continued to be sought after by right wing media. As one of only a handful of prominent black Republicans, he provides the GOP with much-needed diversity, and support for hardline policies that doesn’t come from one of the party’s older, white men. West has also launched his own PAC, the Guardian Fund, which the conservative American Spectator reports is designed to “raise $5 million to help 12 conservative candidates running in 2014.”

West was a prolific fundraiser as a member of Congress — he raised more money for his re-election bid than any freshman. And his fundraising ability, combined with his continued popularity with the tea party, could pay dividends for him should he decide to run for office again in Florida, though for now, at least, it’s not clear that his ambitions include succeeding Rick Scott in the governor’s mansion.

“Since Rick Scott broke with his Tea Party allies and embraced expanding Medicaid, conservatives have been searching for a viable alternative to Scott,” says Peter Schorsch, a political consultant who runs the popular SaintPetersblog, which covers Florida politics. “West is the fantasy choice of the most radical elements of the Republican party.”

Schorsch says it’s the dissatisfaction with Scott inside the GOP is part of what’s fueling interest in West. But he adds that the would-be candidate seems to have other things on his mind.

“No one in the GOP establishment wants Scott to run, but the folks in the Villages, the folks watching [Sean] Hannity; those Floridians want West to run,” Schorsch says. “But there’s something about Brother Allen … an, um, entrepreneurial spirit that draws him to financializing his political efforts. I genuinely believe West genuinely believes he is not a politician, but the leader of a ’cause’ — whatever that may be. But a big part of leading this cause is monetizing it. That’s why he’s setting up these foundations and taking the odd TV gigs.”

In other words, why run for governor when he’s getting so much attention, and enumeration, just by being Allen West.

Follow Joy Reid on Twitter at @thereidreport.

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