Why major gun control legislation may not pass

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The strong momentum early this year around new gun control laws, spurred by the mass shooting in Newtown and a spate of murders in Chicago, has stalled on Capitol Hill, as Democrats are abandoning some gun control measures and Republicans refuse to back virtually any of them.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Tuesday said he would not include a measure banning the sale of 157 military-style assault weapons in a broader gun control package, arguing it did not have sufficient support in the Democratically-controlled Senate, with many in his party and all Republicans opposing it. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), one of the leading gun control advocates in Congress, told the Huffington Post that Reid was also downplaying the chances of a provision that would ban high-capacity magazines that hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

And while Democrats, including the Obama administration, are still pushing hard to expand  background checks to all gun sales, only a handful of Republicans in the House or Senate have so far said they would support that idea.

Without sizable GOP support, even the background check provision, which polls show more than 80 percent of Americans support, is unlikely to pass in Congress and be signed into law by President Obama. So far, the only gun control provision almost certain to be approved is a ban on “straw purchasing,” when a person buys a gun for someone who is legally barred from purchasing one.

The decline in the fortune of gun control measures has been swift, if not surprising. With Republicans and even some Democrats wary of losing in more conservative districts and states due to the influence of the National Rifle Association and gun-owning voters, no major gun control legislation has passed for almost two decades.

But Democrats and gun control advocates thought the dynamics had shifted over the last few months.  The murders of 20 first-grade children in Newtown had galvanized the public and a spate of shootings in Chicago, including the death of 15-year-old Hadiya Pendleton, had inspired President Obama to push the issue for the first time in his national political career.

One of the most memorable moments of his State of the Union address was a demand for Congress to hold votes on a series of gun control measures.

But a bloc of Democrats who represent more conservative states like Louisiana, many of them up for reelection in 2014 and wary of losing support among gun-owning swing voters, have remained unenthusiastic. Democratic aides had long downplayed any chance of the assault weapons ban passing, knowing it is unpopular among these Senate Democrats, but had argued the high-capacity magazine bill and the increased background checks should be able to make it through the Senate, which Democrats control.

Now, those ideas seem far from assured passage. No Republican in the Senate has fully embraced either the background checks or the magazine ban, and Democrats need either to get 5 GOP votes or get Republicans to drop the requirement that 60 votes are needed to approve the final bill.

And the results of the Senate votes will impact how the GOP-run House views gun control. A large, bi-partisan majority behind background checks in the Senate, combined with strong advocacy from President Obama, could force House Speaker John Boehner to hold a vote on the measure and allow it to pass with mostly Democratic votes. But if a gun control measure barely passes in the Senate, it will make it easier for Republicans in the House simply not to take it up and let it die.

Follow Perry Bacon Jr. on Twitter at @PerryBaconJr.