What other black politicians can learn from Booker’s victory
ANALYSIS - The controversies around Booker's connections to Wall Street and Silicon Valley and his occasional breaks from liberal orthodoxy have in some ways obscured the historic achievement he is nearing...
With an overwhelming victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in New Jersey, Cory Booker put himself on the path to become only the fourth black person ever elected by popular vote to the U.S. Senate.
If he wins in October, as expected, Booker will join the ranks of Massachusetts’ Edward Brooke, a Republican who served in the Senate from 1967 to 1979, and two Democrats from Illinois, Carol Moseley Braun (1993-1999) and Barack Obama. (Four other blacks have been tapped for Senate seats by governors or state legislatures.)
The controversies around Booker’s connections to Wall Street and Silicon Valley and his occasional breaks from liberal orthodoxy have in some ways obscured the historic achievement the Newark mayor is nearing. Only six blacks in U.S. history have ever been elected governor or senator, the positions that give one the most power in America’s political system and put a politician on the path to becoming president or vice-president.
Here’s how Booker did it, and what his path could suggest for other black politicians.
1. Build a brand
It’s hard to give a speech that immediately starts speculation about you running for president (as Obama did in 2004 at the Democratic National Convention) or amass more than a million Twitter followers and get the support of Oprah Winfrey (Booker).
But most African-American politicians face a central challenge: they aren’t rich, and you need millions to win a statewide race. The majority of the members of the U.S. Senate are millionaires. So successful black candidates need a brand that helps them connect with potential campaign donors and raise money outside of their own communities, which are often not full of wealthy people. (Newark, for example, has a very high poverty rate)
Booker has been criticized for being too close to Wall Street and Silicon Valley and spending too much time building his national profile. But it’s unlikely the mayor of a town like Newark with few big businesses and potential campaign donors would have so easily won a Senate race without the prodigious advantages he amassed because of his fame and support from wealthy elites.
To put it bluntly, a Cory Booker who didn’t spend time cultivating people outside of Newark probably would have been stuck in that city for the rest of his political career.
Kasim Reed, the mayor of Atlanta and considered a potential candidate for statewide office, seems aware of the importance of a national profile. He’s a regular on programs like NBC’s “Meet the Press” and recently visited the White House for meeting with President Obama on updating the Voting Rights Act.
2. Run in a state that’s close to your politics
It’s no accident Booker, Obama and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, the only black governor in America, all hail from strongly liberal states, Republican Sen. Tim Scott represents a conservative one (South Carolina) and Democrats Harold Ford and Artur Davis, once stars among black politicians, couldn’t win in Tennessee and Alabama.
Because of the liberal leans of their states, for Booker, Obama and Patrick, victory in the primary all but guaranteed election. Scott, who was appointed to a Senate seat, also is virtually a shoo-in unless he is challenged in a GOP primary next year.
In states in the South in particular, where race and politics are so intertwined, the biggest challenge for an African-American Democrat running statewide is political party, not skin color.
In 2010, Davis, running for governor of Alabama, voted against Obamacare, aware that backing the controversial law would have virtually guaranteed defeat in a general election against a Republican. But Democratic voters in Alabama were so angry about the vote that Davis even lost the primary. In 2006, when Democratic candidates won virtually everywhere, Ford ran a strong campaign for a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee and still lost.
Georgia Democrats say Reed is already aware of this reality. While he probably could have become the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate or governor in 2014, he chose to pass on both races and wait until the state’s demographics make it more favorable for a Democrat. The growth of the Hispanic population in the state, (it has increased from 5.3 percent in 2000 to 8.8 percent in 2010), combined with the high number of African-Americans there (about 30 percent of the population is black), is gradually moving Georgia from leaning strongly Republican to a state more favorable for Democrats. And that trend is likely to continue, so Reed can wait and run after 2014, when the state’s demographics are even more favorable for him.
Keeping geography in mind, two black candidates have strong chances of victories next year. Scott, already appointed to the Senate seat, is virtually guaranteed to win a full six-year term in deeply-red South Carolina. Meanwhile, if he can survive a very intense Democratic primary, Maryland Lt. Governor Anthony Brown could win the top job there.
3. Make wise strategic decisions
This is not unlike the dynamic for white politicians. But black politicians rarely have the finances to make two major statewide runs, so doing it right the first time is important. In 2003, Barack Obama had just come off badly losing a Democratic primary for the House a few years earlier. Valerie Jarrett, his longtime friend and adviser, wasn’t sure Obama should aim for the Senate then.
But Obama made sure Jesse Jackson, Jr. was not running (Jackson would have likely won the black vote or split it with Obama), then courted key black figures in the state and built a coalition that combined African-Americans with white liberals who were impressed both by Obama’s early opposition to the Iraq War and his election as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review more than a decade earlier.
Booker similarly has waited for the right time to seek a promotion. The Newark mayor seems to like being involved in getting things done, even if it’s helping someone shovel snow in their driveway. That would suggest he should run for governor of New Jersey, not the Senate, where legislation is perpetually stalled and members spend much of their day in dull hearings.
But Booker recognized reality. Even before he passed away earlier this year, New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg seemed likely to opt against running for reelection to the Senate in 2014, giving Booker an obvious opportunity. On the other hand, running for governor this year against the popular Chris Christie and losing could have dealt a major blow to Booker’s career.
Booker smartly chose the easier contest.
perry.bacon@nbcuni.com
