The 3 groups that define the government shutdown

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The government shutdown will enter its seventh day on Monday, with no obvious end in sight.

Not only that, but Republican leaders in Washington are suggesting they could also refuse to increase the federal debt limit, a move that would damage America’s economy even more than the shutdown.

What’s behind this brinkmanship? At heart, it’s about three groups fighting for control over Washington.

1. President Obama and the congressional Democrats

Obama administration officials hold two views they are prepared to strongly defend. First, they will not agree to substantial changes in the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”,) which they believe has been ratified through passage in Congress in 2010, a Supreme Court decision upholding it last year and the presidential election. Secondly, they believe the Republicans linking the debt ceiling to policy changes is a pattern that must be broken, not just in this round of negotiations, but permanently, so that the American economy is not in danger of a potentially catastrophic default every few months.

In the administration’s view, any bill that would substantially hurt Obamacare is verboten in the first place. Tying that to a temporary government funding bill, as the Republicans are seeking, makes that worse, as it would encourage the GOP to use every subsequent piece of legislation to further weaken the health care law. But the White House is most outraged that Republicans would consider the debt ceiling, an absolutely must-pass piece of legislation, as instead a bargaining chip over the healthcare law.

“Important to remember that GOP wants to delay health law in exchange for 2 month CR, what will they want next time and the time after that,” Obama senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said in a recent Twitter posting.

Those positions are big challenges for the Republicans, because the GOP forced a government shutdown over the health care law, now is effectively admitting Obama has won that debate and is looking for any kind of “win” through the debt ceiling process, such some specific cuts in Medicare or Social Security that might satisfy conservative activists who initially wanted some kind of delay or defunding of the health care law.

White House officials argue House Speaker John Boehner walked himself into a position where conservatives are expecting some kind of policy achievement, and Republicans need to “figure their own way out of this,” in the words of one senior administration official.

Administration officials said they are willing to discuss almost anything else besides those two issues with Republicans. At the same time, they emphasize that the budget deficit is already going down and that Democrats have already agreed to reduced spending levels in annual appropriations through the so-called sequester.

In effect, the Republicans who won in 2010 have reduced federal spending, as they promised conservative voters they would. Administration officials argue Republicans should be happy with that success and stop moving the goalposts to the health care law.

2. The Tea Party Republicans

There is a bloc of Republicans, particularly in the House, who either fantastically still believe Obama can be forced to substantially pare back the health care law or who think it’s such bad policy that it’s worth a government shutdown and potential default on the nation’s debts. Republican officials I talked to said this group was from 20 to 40 members in the House, depending on how broadly you define this bloc. Some of the Republicans in this group in the House include Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Steve King of Iowa and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, while Ted Cruz of Texas is the most prominent senator who holds these views.

How can 20 or 40 people push 279, the total number of Republicans in the House and Senate? Very simply. The most hard-line members help define conservatism for the rest of the party. Members who don’t support the defund Obamacare movement may face primary challengers from more conservative opponents or struggle to win Senate or gubernatorial races against other candidates who do. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky privately discouraged Cruz’s anti-Obamacare push over the summer, but is unlikely to do so publicly, as McConnell’s Tea Party challenger in Kentucky, Matthew Bevin, is a vocal supporter of Cruz’s approach.