Why Christie's appeal to minority voters in New Jersey won't immediately translate to the national stage
ANALYSIS - Christie’s statement was unsubtle and obviously geared at 2016. But his argument, that winning minority voters in New Jersey means he can do so nationally, is not as clear-cut as the governor says. Here’s a look at why...
3. The Obama factor
Endorsements generate lots of hype, but generally play a very limited role in who actually wins or loses an election. But a great test of this could come in 2016, when Barack Obama is campaigning for the Democratic presidential nominee to black voters. Barack Obama has maintained very high approval ratings among African-Americans throughout his presidency, even as his numbers have fluctuated widely among other groups. A Gallup survey earlier this year showed that Obama’s approval rating has dipped to as low as 34 percent among whites and 49 percent among Hispanics, but never below 84 percent among blacks. It is often above 90 percent in polls.
Anecdotally, it’s clear the president and his wife Michelle are heroes to many African-Americans.
Even if Christie is a Republican nominee who makes direct appeals to African-Americans, he will face a Democratic nominee who will be loudly supported by President Obama, who will cast whichever Democrat who is running as the heir and protector of his legacy, the person who would, for example, keep “Obamacare” in place.
If Obama’s numbers keep dipping overall but remain high among blacks, a likely possibility, Obama’s major role in the 2016 election will be to campaign for the Democratic nominee in black and highly progressive communities while leaving swing areas to less polarizing surrogates.
Obama has barely uttered a word about Buono, who is running against Christie in New Jersey. But a vote for Christie in 2016 would be a vote against Obama’s candidate. This will be an obvious barrier to Christie winning more than 10 percent of the African-American vote.
4. The Clinton factor
Candidates matter, and the person widely expected to be the Democrats’ candidate in 2016 is Hillary Clinton, who is a much more experienced politician than Buono. Most of the current polling about Hillary Clinton does not delve deeply into her appeal to minority voters. But a Pew Research Center survey in June 2012 showed her favorability rating among blacks at 87 percent, an Obama-like figure. That number, compared to her 59 percent rating among blacks in May 2008, in the midst of the tense Democratic primary, suggests African-American voters, like the president himself, didn’t hold any lingering resentment of the Clintons from the primary.
In addition, Clinton and her advisers are well aware of the “emerging coalition” of blacks, Latinos and people between ages 18 and 35 of all races who have powered Obama’s victories the last two elections. Jeremy Bird, who was in charge of the get-out-the vote operation for Obama in 2012, is now advising a group called “Waiting for Hillary.”
If Clinton runs, Christie would face a candidate with strong appeal among minority voters with a team of aides skilled in turning out those voters. The Republican National Committee is hiring people to outreach to minorities in key states ahead of 2016, with some of these staffers working in New Jersey. But this is nothing like the Obama operation Clinton will inherit that helped lead to black turnout actually exceeding white turnout for the first time ever in 2012.
5. The Republican Party
Christie is likely to run as the favorite of the GOP establishment and more traditional wing of the party, much as George W. Bush (2000) John McCain (2008) and Mitt Romney (2012). If he runs, his rhetoric won’t be as anti-Obama as figures like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, who will compete for Tea Party votes. Christie may downplay the very-conservative Iowa caucuses and focus on states like New Hampshire and Florida, as Romney did in 2012.
Even then, remember that, if he wants to be president, the next election Christie must win is the Republican presidential primary. Bush, McCain and Romney all tried to avoid taking steps in winning that primary that would hurt them in the general election.
Yet, in 2000, Bush campaigned at Bob Jones University, a school known then for its ban on interracial dating. In 2008, McCain abruptly shifted from favoring comprehensive immigration reform to talking tough on the border, while Romney declared his immigration idea was that people here illegally would self-deport, running to the right on the issue to weaken one of his rivals, Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Christie, who has already praised President Obama on the eve of the 2012 elections for his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, accepted Medicaid funding for his state from “Obamacare” and annoyed social conservatives by not appealing a court ruling in New Jersey that mandated the state allow same-sex marriages, has already established his centrist bonafides.
There will be a push for him to move more to the political right, particularly in 2015 and 2016 in the primary. One of the defining characteristics of today’s GOP is, outside of any policy stance, aggressive rhetorical criticism of Obama, exactly the kind of tactic that will hurt with black voters. Party activists, as Marco Rubio has learned this year, are wary of immigration reform, even if it might help Republicans win Hispanic voters in a general election.
Can Christie win the primary without using the term “Obamacare” like a epithet? Can he, unlike McCain or Romney, win while maintaining a position on immigration reform that is very close to Obama’s?
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