According to a new prediction, Joe Biden has a really good chance of winning the electoral college. In fact. The Economist has created a model that says the former vice president has a likelihood of beating President Donald Trump by 90 percent.
The electoral college is what got Trump elected to office on 2016, despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote. For this November’s election, it’s safe to say everyone’s eyes will be on the electoral college vote. Trump reportedly has a 9 percent chance of winning that vote.
But back in 2016, there were predictions about who would win the election that did not sustain. The Princeton Election Consortium said Clinton had a 99 percent chance of winning, and The Huffington Post said she had a 98 percent chance of winning, according to Newsweek.
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But predictions say Biden is doing far better than Clinton was in polling by this time in 2016. On Monday, Biden was leading Trump with 10.4 percent, and back in 2016, Clinton was only up 6.3 percent on Trump. But by Election Day, her number shrunk to 3.9 percent, losing the electoral college vote, but winning the popular vote by 2.1 percent.
Fast-forwarding back to today, Trump appears to be at a slight disadvantage: 116 to 312 electoral votes appear to be for him, but 226 to 422 are predicted to favor Biden. Per Newsweek: “The forecast is based on a predictive model that simulates 20,000 plausible election outcomes, with each simulation varying vote shares to account for possible polling errors.”
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There are 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency of the United States.
As of today, FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 13 percent chance of winning against Biden.
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