The presidential election is over, and Barack Obama keeps his job in the White House for another four years. While some are applauding the president and his team for waging a successful campaign against adversary Mitt Romney and holding the Republicans at bay, the Obama victory accomplished something else: It debunked myths that were perpetuated over the course of this election season, whether by political campaigns, by pundits and prognosticators, or by word of mouth.
Here are the biggest myths that were debunked in this week’s election:
1. Obama can’t get re-elected with unemployment near 8 percent. Before November 6, no president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been reelected to a second term with unemployment as high as it is today, which is just under 8 percent (7.9 percent to be exact). Republicans promoted the narrative that the high unemployment reflected a failure of Obama’s policies.
However, with the economy improving, unemployment falling below 8 percent, and 171,000 jobs added in October, voters decided to stay the course and stick with the president, who they believed cares more about the middle class and the poor than his opponent. Oddly, those voters who were most concerned about unemployment and high prices were more likely to blame Bush—not Obama—for the nation’s economic predicament.
Meanwhile, the president scored points in Michigan and Ohio for the auto bailout, and from an economic stimulus that, however insufficient, helped stabilize the economy.
2. The youth vote is disengaged and unenthusiastic. Conventional wisdom dictated that in 2012, young voters—disillusioned and disengaged— would abandon Obama and deprive him of the impressive numbers he earned in his 2008 run. Meanwhile, voters between 18 and 29 were 19 percent of the U.S. electorate this November, a percentage increase over 2008. Although the President won the youth vote by a smaller margin nationwide this year, in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, his margin stayed about the same or widened.
3. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are ‘swing states’. A swing state is one in which no single party has a lock on the Electoral College. So, who said Pennsylvania was a swing state? The Keystone State has not been swing state for some time, as it has voted Democratic in each presidential election since 1992. Similarly, the1988 election was the last time heavy labor Michigan voted for a Republican, and it has leaned Democratic ever since. And Wisconsin hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential ticket since it voted for Reagan in 1984.
4. Paul Ryan would be a boon to Romney’s ticket. Rep. Paul Ryan was popular among beltway Republicans, but not so much with the majority of the American electorate. Moreover, Ryan failed to capture his home state of Wisconsin. As chair of the House Budget Committee, Ryan became known as the architect of a controversial budget that would have privatized Medicare, and was blasted by Catholic bishops for its harsh treatment of the poor.
5. Ryan’s addition to the GOP ticket would lead to a substantive discussion on the budget and Medicare. Ryan gained a reputation for being a policy wonk, a man with big ideas. But it turns out his record was lacking and paltry, given that his budget ideas all came from the Heritage Foundation. Plus, the Congressional Budget Office found that Ryan’s Medicare plan would actually increase health care costs.
6. The Romney had momentum that was surging only to be stopped by Hurricane Sandy. If Romney was stopped by a hurricane, it was Hurricane Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey who spoke at the GOP convention, and praised Obama for his response to the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy. The notion that Romney experienced a surge in popularity, a “Mitt-mentum” if you will, was overstated by the governor’s campaign, in the hopes of influencing the media and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Romney did experience a lift from his performance in the first debate, but it didn’t last. In fact, he stalled after the vice presidential debate and the second presidential debate.
7. Independents don’t break for incumbents late in the race. One of the most compelling arguments for a Romney victory was the so-called incumbent rule, which says that undecided voters will break to the challenger in the last days of the campaign. However, statistical evidence shows the rule does not apply to presidential elections anymore. Polls on the eve of the election found undecided voters with high favorability ratings for Obama, better than the national average and far better than Romney’s ratings.
8. Benghazi/Libya would be important to voters. Republicans and conservative media outlets politicized the deadly terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, in an attempt to manufacture a scandal with allegations of a cover-up, and paint the Obama administration as incompetent on foreign policy. But Benghazi was not on the voters’ radar. A CNN exit poll found the economy was the major issue for voters at 60 percent, followed by health care at 17 percent, the deficit at 17 percent, and foreign policy with 4 percent.
9. Low black and Latino turnout. Given the high unemployment, black and Latino voters were expected to stay home this election, voting in modest numbers compared to 2008 and dashing Obama’s reelection hopes.
However, voter turnout mirrored 2008 levels, with blacks making up 13 percent of the electorate, and Latinos increasing their share from 9 percent in 2008 to 10 percent in 2012. Fast growth in the Latino and Asian populations, and high black turnout in battleground states such as Virginia, Georgia and Ohio made the difference for the president.
And voters of color went overwhelmingly for Obama, with blacks, Latinos and Asians giving the president 93 percent, 71 percent and 73 percent of their votes, respectively.
10. Obama’s support for gay marriage would lower his support among blacks. Word on the street was that socially conservative, churchgoing African-Americans would turn their backs on the president once he publicly supported gay marriage. In reality, Obama received widespread praise from the black community for taking a stand supporting same sex unions, and received nearly exclusive support from them in the recent election.
11. Jewish voters are up for grabs and Israel is the main factor. Mitt Romney calculated that he could win the election, in part, by chipping away at Obama’s support among Jewish Americans, and persuade them to abandon the president over Israel and Iran. The reality is that Obama enjoyed 70 percent Jewish support this election cycle, which is consistent with other Democratic candidates. In Florida, Obama beat Romney on the issue of Israel by 32 points, and on Iran by 27 points, with substantial leads on foreign policy, economic issues and social security. A recent poll found that only 10 percent of Jewish-Americans listed Israel as their first or second most important issue.
12. Romney could win by winning the white vote. The Republican Party made a conscious decision to court the white vote and no one else. As a percentage of the electorate, whites dipped from 74 percent in 2008 to 72 percent in 2012. Romney won 59 percent of the white vote, including white evangelicals and Catholics and even a majority of whites in blue states. Eighty-eight percent of Romney supporters were white, which was not nearly enough for him to win.
Rather than embrace diversity and changing demographics, conservatives decided to double down on an anti-immigration platform, suppress black and Latino voters through voter ID laws, and arguably stoke white racial fears. A majority of babies born in the U.S. are of color, which means that one day whites will become a minority in the country. And Latinos account for half of the nation’s population growth over the past decade.
This may very well be the last election where Republicans attempt to win solely by maximizing the white vote and alienating everyone else. The strategy failed for Romney in any case, as he found there are not enough whites, particularly aging white men, to win a national election. A multiracial coalition carried President Obama to victory.
13. Romney would win the women’s vote over the economy. Romney tried to convince women that women cared more about the economy than their reproductive rights, and that abortion didn’t matter. Obama won the women’s vote 55 to 44 percent, due to the anti-abortion stance of the GOP ticket, and the controversial rape comments of Senate candidates Todd Akin (R-Missouri) and Richard Mourdock (R-Indiana). Romney failed to distance himself from the tea party extremism of the Republican Party, and paid the price in the voting booth.
14. The polls were wrong and/or overstating Obama’s lead. Some Republican politicos predicted a Romney landslide, claimed reputable polls incorrectly showed Obama ahead or overstated his lead, and took FiveThirtyEight’s master statistician Nate Silver to task for forecasting a greater than 90 percent chance of an Obama win. Silver correctly predicted the outcome of the election in 49 out of 50 states. There was no “Bradley effect” for the president, just a victory that the polls and prediction markets forecasted.
15. Super PACS would determine the outcome of the election. The rise of the Super PACS following the Supreme Court’s Citizens United Supreme Court decision ushered in an era of unlimited corporate money influence over elections. Secret money from undisclosed sources has influenced political campaigns, but Republican outside groups received little return on their billion-dollar investment in this election. For example, the Karl Rove Super PAC American Crossroads achieved a 1.29 percent return on investment for the $104.7 million spent on the election.
16. There is an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. Polls and public perceptions prior to the Election Day indicated an enthusiasm gap among President Obama’s base when compared to Republicans, giving Romney an edge in the race for the White House. In the end, however, the Democratic base—including women, minorities and young voters—came to the polls in equal or greater numbers compared to 2008. Turnout means everything, and the base was fired up. So was the Obama ground game.
Follow David A. Love on Twitter at @davidalove