5 reasons why the shutdown looks intractable

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The government shutdown has reached its third day now and seems headed for many more. Here’s why:

1. For the Republicans, this has become about not losing to Obama as much as gutting the health care law.

House Republicans started off demanding the defunding of the health care law. They have consistently dropped their requests over the last two weeks, from a one-year delay of the entire law, to a delay of the individual mandate to some conservatives now asking for simply the suspension of a much smaller provision in the law, tax on medical devices. These increasingly smaller requests show that Republicans understand Obama is not going to help them dismantle the law with his name on it.

But Republicans are unlikely to simply fold. It would make them look weak.

“We’re not going to be disrespected,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman, (R-Ind.) told the Washington Examiner.

2. It’s not clear House Republican members are suffering from the shutdown

Polls show that a large majority of Americans (72 percent, according to a CBS News survey) oppose shutting down the government over Obamacare. Even about half (49 percent) of Republicans disapprove of this tactic.

But that’s not the real constituency of House Republicans. Most of their districts are strongly Republican, meaning the biggest danger they face is losing in a primary to an even more conservative opponent in a low-turnout race where only the most committed, conservative activists show up to vote. That’s why Republican members of Congress are wary of backing something with wide support in the public, like immigration reform, but embrace a shutdown that is broadly opposed.

More than a dozen House Republicans have emerged (20 according to the Huffington Post) to urge the party to shift course and support government funding even without any new restrictions on Obamacare. But these are not profiles in courage; all but one (Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) hail from states Obama won in 2012. A Republican from the South, which is strongly anti-Obama, who publicly suggested the shutdown was not worth it could be in political trouble.

Many in the Republican base, particularly Tea Party activists, want this confrontation with President Obama.

3. Some Republicans really do hate the health care law

Gutting Obamacare isn’t a minor issue to congressional Republicans. Many of the Republicans who won their seats in 2010 and 2012 campaigned on repealing Obamacare. To them, defeating the law is one of the reasons they came to Congress.

A long, extended fight about the health care law is exactly what they’ve wanted, even if it might fail in the end.

4. Obama is not running for re-election again

The president’s tone and approach have been much different than in the budget battles of 2011 or even earlier this year.  He’s not looking for a simple way out, particularly if it involves concessions on the health care law. He’s not really offering the Republicans anything at this point to end this standoff.  That posture is logical (giving in now would only embolden the GOP to demand more in the next fiscal battle) but not conducive to an end to the shutdown.

Obama can adopt this posture in part because his approval ratings among independents and Republicans, the kind of people who may not like this “I will not negotiate” language, are less important than ever to the president. Obama can push further than in 2011, in part because his whole agenda is no longer at stake. (A protracted shutdown in 2011 that lead to a major economic calamity could have weakened Obama to the point he did not win in 2012, and health care reform would have been gutted by a President Romney.)

5. Obama believes in Obamacare

Obama’s views on many issues are not ironclad. In 2010, he reached a compromise that extended tax cuts for the wealthy, reversing a long-held stance. Only a few weeks ago, he announced his plan to strike in Syria, then reversed himself. He is generally committed to Democratic Party priorities, but has proposed reductions in spending on Social Security and Medicare that others in his party oppose.

But Republicans have seized on an issue where the president will not be moved. His belief in the core tenets of the health care law, the subsidies, exchanges and Medicaid programs it sets up and the individual mandate that underpins those policies, has been consistent. He has embraced the “Obamacare” moniker, created by conservatives to mock him, as a badge of honor.

Republicans and even some Democrats believed Obama would quickly yield in this debate, not wanting a government shutdown on his watch. They were wrong.